Wisdom from Elon - Part II - SCurve and Prediction

Around minute 34, he mentions the popular “S” Curve of technology life cycle (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_life_cycle#The_four_phases_of_the_technology_life-cycle).

What I thought was an interesting angle was how that affects estimates. By default, we extrapolate trends linearly. And that has an effect on our predictions when the rate of change is changing. We underestimate new technology and over estimate mature technology. Something to be mindful of!