What do you watch for when you make decisions?

I just finished the fantastic book “Decisive” by Chip and Dan Heath. Here is my compressed cheat sheet. Do read the book - it is full of examples and useful nuggets on how we can build a better decision making process.

So, there are 4 main villains of decision making

  1. Narrow framing
  2. Confirmation Bias
  3. Short term emotion
  4. Overconfidence

So, how do you counter them?

Here is a list of questions to ask yourself when you are making a decision

1. Narrow frame -> Widen your options

  • Are you asking a “whether or not” question?
  • What else could you do with the same amount of resources?
  • What if you current options disappeared?
  • How can you try multiple options at the same time?
  • Are you stuck in the prevention / promotion mindset?
  • How do you find someone who has already solved a similar problem?
  • Can you think of analogies, inside and outside your scope, of similar problems?

2. Confirmation Bias -> Reality-Test your assumptions

  • What would have to be true for the opposite opinion to be the very best choice?

  • What facts would have to be true for your assumption to be wrong? Find those facts and check them.

  • Are you too caught up in an assumption? Have you tried making a deliberate mistake?

  • Are you too zoomed in? If so, try zooming out

  • Get a broader (average) picture. Experts are good at giving you this.

  • Are you too zoomed out?

  • Zoom in : Get a close-up view of a sample

  • Did you try doing a trial run? (except when you need commitment)

3. Short term emotion -> Attain distance

  • How would this decision affect you in 10 hour /10 months /10 year
  • Are you going with the flow (familiarity)?
  • Are you over-emphasized on avoiding losses?
  • What would you tell your best friend to do?

4. Overconfidence -> Prepare to be wrong

  • What would happen in the best case? How can you prepare?
  • What would happen in the worst case? How can you prepare?
  • Have you set tripwires to revisit this decision in the future?

Finally, here are some good practices to follow generally to make better decisions:

  • Build a playlist of questions to ask for different types of decisions

  • Define and focus core priorities

  • Build a “Stop doing” list

  • Ask every once in a while : Am I doing what I most need to be doing now?

  • Focus on the process, and less on the decision.

  • In a team, decisions must be seen as fair even if they are not favorable.

  • Bargaining helps

  • Procedural justice is imporant

  • State back the other side

  • Defend a decision by pointing out flaws